Steve Makinen reveals the important college basketball mid-major conference tournament betting trends you need to know.College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Trends: Mid-Majors
The madness of March encompasses the entire month of great basketball action and not just the NCAA tournament, and the opening of the conference tourneys, even the mid-majors, should get most bettors excited. I know many in the industry who prefer the volume of games and the familiarity of opponents that the conference tournament weeks bring. Some professional bettors spend much more time, resources, and bankroll on the conference tourneys than they do on the NCAA’s, NIT, CIT, and CBI combined. For those of you that might behave similarly, I offer up the following betting trends for every conference tournament about to occur.This will be a three-part series, with the mid-major conferences starting tournament games on dates of this week (3/4-3/11) included in this article, and those playing next week in the next piece. The third and final part will include all the key info for the power conferences, starting on March 12th.
The angles that I have chosen to look at focused on three key areas, with combinations of each in some cases. Those areas were bye games, rounds, and line ranges.
To get you started, bettors should understand that the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. Conference tournament favorites off a bye are 621-193 SU and 394-338-17 ATS (53.8%) over the last 10 seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game.
Note: These betting systems included games heading into the respective 2024 tournaments.
The leagues covered in this first piece include:
AMERICA EAST – Starts March 9
ATLANTIC SUN – Starts March 4
BIG SKY – Starts March 9
BIG SOUTH – Starts March 6
COLONIAL ATHLETIC – Starts March 8
HORIZON LEAGUE – Starts March 5
MISSOURI VALLEY – Starts March 7
NORTHEAST – Starts March 6
OHIO VALLEY – Starts March 6
PATRIOT LEAGUE – Starts March 5
SOUTHERN – Starts March 8
SOUTHLAND – Starts March 10
SUMMIT – Starts March 8
SUN BELT – Starts March 5
WEST COAST – Starts March 7
For my latest strength ratings, including Power Ratings, Effective Strength indicators, Bettors’ Ratings, Recent Ratings, and Schedule Strengths, visit the NCAAMBB team power rankings page on VSiN.com, sortable by conference, or see our special conference by conference tournament pages.
AMERICA EAST
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Double-digit road underdogs in the quarterfinal round of the America East tourney are on an 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) surge
- Small favorites of -4.5 points or less are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in the America East tournament since 2015.
- Seven of the last nine (77.8%) America East championship games went Under the total
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Single-digit underdogs in the Atlantic Sun tournament are 20-20 SU and 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%) since 2014, while double-digit favorites are on a 33-2 SU and 18-15-2 ATS (54.5%) surge in that same span.
- Home teams in the Atlantic Sun semifinal games are 11-7 SU but just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) in their last 18 tries
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Single-digit favorites in the Big Sky tourney are on an amazing 48-12 SU and 40-19-1 ATS (67.8%) run since 2015, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in the title contest.
- Lower totals of 140 or less in the Big Sky tourney have gone Over at a 17-5 (77.3%) rate since 2016.
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Favorites over seven points or more have been very successful in the Big South tourney since 2014, going 28-5 SU and 19-14 ATS (57.6%)
- In the quarterfinal round of the Big South tournament, teams off a first-round bye taking on teams that already played are on a 21-7 SU and 17-10-1 ATS (63%) run, including 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13.
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- This is a strange one and a tight line scenario, but in the last 10 years of the CAA tourney, there have been 18 favorites of -2.5 to -3.5, and those teams boast a perfect 18-0 SU and 17-0-1 ATS (100%) record in those games!
- Teams off a bye taking on teams that already played in the CAA tourney are on a 19-2 SU and 13-8 ATS (61.9%) run over the last 10 years.
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Teams playing as underdogs of six points or more and having played already in the Horizon League tournament are on an amazing 9-8 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) run against teams that enjoyed a bye!
- Ten of the last 12 Horizon League Tournament semifinal games have gone Under the total (83.3%).
- Home teams priced as five-point favorites or less (incl. underdogs) are on an incredible 18-0 SU and 17-0-1 ATS streak in the Horizon League tourney since 2014!
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Only two of the 37 underdogs of 6.5 points or more in the MVC tourney since 2014 have won outright and have gone 13-24 ATS (35.1%) in those games.
- The MVC tourney is typically a low-scoring bracket, and over the last nine seasons, on totals of 131.5 or higher, Under is on a 32-17 (65.3%) run, although these were 5-2 Over in 2023.
- Favorites in the MVC tournament championship game have won the last 12 games outright and are 11-0 ATS since ’13!
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Underdogs in the Northeast Conference tourney championship game are on a 14-3 ATS (82.4%) run, including 11 outright upsets.
- Overall favorites of 4.5 points or less are just 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in their last 19 Northeast Conference tourney games.
- 11 of the last 16 quarterfinal games in the Northeast Conference tourney went Under the total (68.8%).
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Ohio Valley Conference title game underdogs are on a 12-1 ATS (92.3%) run.
- Eleven of the last 14 OVC tournament semifinal games have gone Under the total (78.6%).
- Laying 3 points or more in the OVC tournament has been risky over the last ten years, as these favorites are just 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%).
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- The quarterfinal round of the Patriot League tourney has trended Over on totals, 26-10 (72.2%) in L36.
- Patriot League tourney games with totals above 139 have trended sharply Over recently, going 30-10-1 OVER the total (75%) since 2014.
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Single-digit favorites in the opening round of the Southern Conference tournament are on a 20-8 SU and ATS (71.4%) run since 2011.
- The Southern Conference tourney semifinals are on a 13-7 Over the total run (65%).
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- The Southland Conference tourney has been a favorite-dominated bracket of late, with small favorites of 4.5 points or fewer doing particularly well, going 27-10 SU and 24-13 ATS (64.9%) since 2014.
- The favorite in the Southland Conference tourney title game is on a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS (73.3%) run dating back to ’08.
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- The most extreme of totals in the Summit League tournament of late have trended Under, with totals >=155 at 10-4 Under and totals <=130 at 9-2 Under, both since 2014.
- Favorites in the Summit League quarterfinals boast a 23-9 SU record but are just 13-18-1 ATS (41.9%) since 2015, including a 1-7 ATS mark for double-digit favorites.
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- Getting a bye in the Sun Belt tournament hasn’t been very advantageous recently, as teams that did are 12-6 SU but 6-12 ATS (33.3%) against teams that didn’t over the last four years.
- Small favorites in the Sun Belt have been money of late, as those laying 4.5 points or less are 30-10 SU and 27-12-1 ATS (69.2%) dating back to ’16.
- Totals above 146 have trended Under of late in the Sun Belt tournament, 14-5 Under the total (73.7%) since 2017.
Conference Tournament Betting Trend(s)
- The last 21 West Coast tourney underdogs of 20 points or fewer facing a team that had a bye in earlier round(s) are 5-16 SU but 15-5-1 ATS (75%).
- WCC favorites in the semifinal and championship rounds are on a 19-11 ATS (63.3%) run.
- The sweet spot for betting favorites in the WCC tourney is in the -6 to -12 line range, 20-2 SU and 17-4-1 ATS (81%) in last 22.
- West Coast Conference tourney totals of 147 or higher have been explosive lately, going Over the total at a 18-9-1 (66.7%) rate, while producing about 156.5 PPG on average.
